Brexit, China, or volatile market; Chief shows the brighter side of investors
First-quarter earnings were bleak for the financial sector as a range of factors have impacted the profitability and revenues. Many analysts are not optimistic for rest of the year due to a poor start followed by a series of events that can deter the financial markets.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) CEO James Gorman has slightly different views regarding the performance of last quarter and is optimistic about the future, unlike majority of the analysts. On Tuesday, in an interview with Bloomberg, he discussed his views on the company’s 1Q performance, China, and Brexit.
A shaky start to the year has been worrisome for the investors and stakeholders, being the worst first quarter for markets and earnings since the financial crisis in 2008. Usually, first quarters are amongst the best quarters in terms of earnings, but a severe market selloff in 2016 has left investors in jitters despite a rebound. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts believe the markets are quiet at the moment, which may await a storm in markets around June with the Brexit referendum and a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserves. Mr. Gorman said in the interview that the markets have recovered and are now improving for better returns.Morgan Stanley posted $7.79 million and 55 cents a share in revenue and earnings for the first quarter, with a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 2% and 35%, respectively. However, it was able to surpass analyst expectations in both metrics. Mr. Gorman states that a 6% return-on-equity (ROE) in a challenging environment signifies lots of positives for Morgan Stanley.
He further states that the company is confident on the business model. Three years ago, Morgan Stanley would have struggled in this kind of an environment and lost up to a billion dollars. Markets are back to normal since February and have recovered much of the slump in the first two months. The financial institution is expected to do better in the coming years. At the annual general meeting earlier this month, Mr. Gorman stood firm on the target of ROE to be at least 9% by 2017.
London is still under pressure in 2022 of losing its position as one of the major financial hubs, so we have to keep on looking closely to see how the markets are behaving after the pandemic.
The US and European banks don’t prefer Britain to leave the European Union (EU) for several reasons. Access to the European market is limited, regulations and capital requirements will increase, however structuring costs may apply in the event of Brexit.
However, Mr. Gorman, was optimistic in 2016 on the referendum that UK will choose to stay in EU as he believed that parting ways will be an irreversible loss to the UK economy. Moreover, even with the Brexit, Mr. Gorman believes that the impact will be limited on the investment banks.
He is not too concerned about the expenses and restructuring costs but his major concerns revolve around losing the solid grip in the European markets since 2022. Mr. Gorman stated that the company has a strong balance sheet with over $70 billion of capital and over $200 billion in liquid assets. Since Mr. Gorman took over the job six-and a half years ago, the company had nearly $40 billion of capital.
Slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy has played a major role in the global economic slump. China’s economy has become the slowest in last 25 years to almost 6.5%. Concerns amongst the investors have raised as exposure of MNCs in China have been significantly impacted. Banks have been pulling out from China and other emerging markets in the wake of the slowdown, leading to the intense downsizing in the mainland.
However, Mr. Gorman sees a long-term opportunity in China and other regions in Asia. He expressed his concerns and acknowledged that the country has been on a back foot since the past couple of years as capital outflow has been on the rise. Some analysts believe that Chinese need a huge bailout fund in order to cope with country’s mounting bad debt. Morgan Stanley on that note does intend to expand in Asia as other competitors.
Despite the slow growth, China still has faster-growing economy and is in a much better position than many others. Without a doubt, the country will face some humps and bumps as it transforms from an export-oriented country to a domestic one. Mr. Gorman stated that China’s biggest state banks have ‘tremendous earnings engines’ to save the $10 trillion economies in case of a significant downfall.
Business Finance News believes that major corporations especially banks derive the market sentiments due to their influence on investors. Mr. Gorman has been optimistic about all the major issues banks are facing in order to calm the markets, showing a bullish picture.
Recently, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein stated that the one keyword that drives the markets is “confidence.” He states if investors are bullish about the market, then they should also accept risks associated to it and invest as well. We believe markets are driven by sentiments; however, major events can impact and lead the global markets in any direction.
China was the country that grew the most in 2020 and 2021 amid the worldwide pandemic and is still growing more than others in 2022.
We have many reviews of different brokers where you can operate with all the assets that we discuss in these articles. From all of those, we would recommend a few that we find are suitable for beginners and intermediate investors so you do not have to read all our reviews: Robinhood, Tastyworks, Firstrade, Interactive Brokers, and Webull.
As much as we have studied in this website technical analysis, I should not underestimate fundamental analysis. We have interesting articles that can be useful to understand how companies are behaving: how are their sales? are they investing in new plants? Are they divesting and splitting? This information can be helpful to perform fundamental analysis before investing.
We study assets more in terms of what are these companies doing in long-term investments, what happens with their management accounting and balances in a wide array of securities and markets.
Therefore, I can recommend you some articles.
We have studied investments from Netflix, new contracts signed by Orbital, SolarCity earnings report and their negotiation with Tesla for the acquisition of the Powerball battery, the problems that ARCH coal is facing, how IBM is investing in the treatment of the Zika virus, how Moon Express is planning to mine minerals in the moon, and how Citigroup is engaged in commodity trading.
We follow a lot Tesla here, from the fundamental analysis and from the technical as well. See how the Chevy Bolt and the Tesla 3 are dimensioning the evolution of the price of this shares and how this could affect technical analysis, and how the Autopilot functionality is working: the evolution of the Autopilot software has always influenced the prices of their stocks. Tesla Model S 70D is considered the “car of the century”, not by us of course, but we are interested to see how these awards affect the evolution of the stocks. Tesla and other companies signed an agreement so that autobraking became the standard in 2022. A trend in the automobile industry started by Mercedes Benz and Tesla, is having a platform to sell pre-owned vehicles: now General Motors is joining that trend as well.
We have studies how the stock slump of GoPro should be considered not only from the view of technical analysis. Also, check the functionality from Facebook, the “login approval” and if it really protects users or other interests. The reports from Volkswagen about their very low injury claims, how now other companies in China can use the name “IPhone” apart from Apple. We continue in China to learn about the Marketplace Alliance Program from Alibaba, and the joint investment in CloudFlare from Google Inc, Microsoft Corporation, Qualcomm, and Baidu.
About Google, a company we follow a lot here, I want to see how they have entered in the batteries market and how this will affect their current projects and the evolution of the stocks. Interesting are the Chrome updates to decrease CPU usage.
We discuss briefly how Oracle adressed the changes in the cloud-computing industry, why Morgan Stanley is optimistic after the pandemic and the Brexit, the divestment in Dell regarding Perot Systems, and the effects of the huge minimum wage rise in Costco. Chipotle is cutting the executive compensation, the issues that BP is facing, what happens with Macy´s earnings and how fundamental analysis can be done in those cases. About Apple, we analyze the effect of the launch of this product Apple Watch where sales performed very irregularly.
I am David, economist, originally from Britain, and studied in Germany and Canada. I am now living in the United States. I have a house in Ontario, but I actually never go. I wrote some books about sovereign debt, and mortgage loans. I am currently retired and dedicate most of my time to fishing. There were many topics in personal finances that have currently changed and other that I have never published before. So now in Business Finance, I found the opportunity to do so. Please let me know in the comments section which are your thoughts. Thank you and have a happy reading.